Beyond Moore's law

Even after Moore?s law ends, chip costs could still halve every few years

The Economist, May. 26, 2015 – 

THERE is a popular misconception about Moore?s law (that the number of transistors on a chip doubles every two years) which has led many to conclude that the 50-year-old prognostication is due to end shortly. This doubling of processing power, for the same cost, has continued apace since Gordon Moore, one of Intel's founders, observed the phenomenon in 1965. At the time, a few hundred transistors could be crammed on a sliver of silicon. Today?s chips can carry billions.

Whether Moore?s law is coming to an end is moot. As far as physical barriers to further shrinkage are concerned, there is no question that, having been made smaller and smaller over the decades, crucial features within transistors are approaching the size of atoms. Indeed, quantum and thermodynamic effects that occur at such microscopic dimensions have loomed large for several years.

Until now, integrated circuits have used a two-dimensional (planar) structure, with a metal gate mounted across a flat, conductive channel of silicon. The gate controls the current flowing from a source electrode at one end of the channel to a drain electrode at the other end. A small voltage applied to the gate lets current flow through the transistor. When there is no voltage on the gate, the transistor is switched off. These two binary states (on and off) are the ones and zeros that define the language of digital devices.

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