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An Introduction to Post-Quantum Cryptography Algorithms
The rise of quantum computing paints a significant challenge for the cryptography we rely on today. The modern encryption standards we currently use to safeguard sensitive data and communications, such as DSA, public key RSA and those based on elliptic curves, will eventually be broken by quantum computers. Estimates vary on when, but at current rates of improvement, this is predicted by some to happen towards the end of the next decade.
www.eetimes.com/, May. 15, 2024 –
Michele Mosca, co-founder of the Institute for Quantum Computing at Canada's University of Waterloo, has estimated that there is a 50% chance of a quantum computer powerful enough to break standard public-key encryption materializing in the next 15 years. This means many embedded systems in development now stand a reasonable chance of encountering such an attack by the end of their production run's working lives. It has also been posited that sensitive data can be stored today and decrypted once quantum computers become powerful enough.
This threat extends across various industries, with financial institutions, health organizations and critical infrastructure–including energy and transport–most at risk.
In late 2023, the U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) made a significant step in post-quantum cryptography (PQC), announcing four standardized algorithms specifically designed to resist attacks from quantum computers.
The state of quantum computing
Currently, quantum computers remain in their infancy.
IBM's Osprey is the leading publicly available machine, with 433 quantum bits (qubits), which take on many states at once. In theory, this allows qubits to make calculations much faster. However, advancements are rapid, and experts predict significant increases in qubit count and processing power.
By 2030, quantum computers are expected to surpass traditional computers for specific tasks, with the gap widening further by 2040 and 2050. While not a perfect equivalent to Moore's Law, the exponential growth in quantum computing capabilities necessitates proactive measures to protect cryptographic systems.